Category : Economic Thoughts

The Only Relevant Color or Gender Here is Non-Depreciating Green. The Alternative Color is Gold.

This was a letter recently released by U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and U.S. Representative John Conyers (D-MI) and was signed by 116 Members of the House of Representatives and 11 senators. Doing counterproductive things to destabilize global economics and […]

The Next Time You Get Harassed About an Underperforming Year—Bring Out the Singer

From the March 2, 2016 Wall Street Journal: Some traders go short. Others go long. Paul Singer went really, really long. His trade, which is transfixing Wall Street this week, has been one of the most drawn-out and contentious bond-market […]

The Five Experiments

While parts of this wander from what we do day to day, I think it can be argued that it is difficult to divorce these issues from investing in today’s world.

A Note From The Portfolio Manager

We have habitually re-counseled clients (and ourselves) that financial markets go down as well as up and that is actually a good thing as we get to “replenish the well” in periods of distress. Thus we generally do not think […]

Supporting Charts – 1st Quarter 2016

CLICK HERE to download our supporting charts for going forward in 2016.

The Dismal Science

Click HERE to download Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say “Usually Not.”

Mini Book Review and Thoughts | “Minding the Markets: An Emotional Finance View of Financial Stability” — David Tuckett

I will ignore the somewhat silly premise of the book which was to analyze the emotional nature of “money managers” and thus glean some clues as to how to prevent future financial crashes. But I would note the following: If […]

Another Sign of These ‘Loose’ Times

We’ve witnessed many weird and fascinating things in these six years of zero interest rates and quantitative easing but nothing that we’ve seen has personified the looseness of monetary policy like what was uttered on RCI Hospitality’s second quarter call. […]

Buyback BS

Of the myriad of reasons proffered daily as to why we are the verge of stock market doom, a “decline in share repurchase” has come up a lot. We would note the following: As the below chart suggests, shares outstanding […]

Let’s Picket for Better Global Sewage

Politics aside, we are regularly asked by large institutional clients, “How is Climate Change affecting the way you invest?” Our short and practical answer is “It doesn’t.” This piece by longtime favorite economic and environmental thinker Bjorn Lomborg is a […]

Quarterly Earnings: Our Sentiments Exactly!

by Ben Claremon | Research Analyst As long term-focused investors, we have a certain disdain for the quarterly earnings rigmarole and the associated maniacal focus on “beating” what are somewhat irrelevant earnings per share estimates. The truth of the matter […]

Very Scary

Our takeaway on this speech is three-fold: We paraphrase: “Wise regulation, which is mostly now in place globally, will ensure that future financial crises will not billow out of control.” Wow, I didn’t realize that until 2010 the world didn’t […]

Buffett vs. Icahn on Coca Cola? Slam dunk for Icahn.

by Jeff Bronchick and Ben Claremon We have been thinking about this issue for a few weeks, tempering our urge to dash out some heated thoughts of the moment. We have gotten over it. Ignoring for a moment the details […]


Here are some thoughts that didn’t make it into our January Strategy Letter but that I wanted to clean off the plate for the New Year: Becoming a celebrity investor as a result of being a serial presenter on the […]

The Nonsense Math Effect

Please insert the phrases “money manager,” “hedge fund,” “large pension plan,” and “underperformance” at will throughout this piece.  The Nonsense Math Effect  Mathematics is a fundamental tool of research. Although potentially applicable in every discipline, the amount of training in […]

Increasingly Obvious Unintended Consequences

While we prefer not to opine in a macro-economic sense on most occasions, THIS PIECE sourced from Grant’s, nicely sums up thoughts expressed in a number of our strategy letters. Artificially depressed interest rates are killing us.

What is Really is Wrong with This Country and the Economy?

Please read this and try not to weep. Let me see if I understand this correctly. The President of the United States gathers together a task force of government lawyers in order to coordinate the ability to sue private companies? […]

A Plea for Higher Interest Rates

What’s great about Jim writing for the unwashed minority (those who toil in official positions in Washington) is that you can re-link and comment without running into the Wrath of Grant’s for violating his confidence as a paid-up subscriber. Our point […]

Atlas Shrugged

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech in Jackson Hole today was notable for what it did not contain—a big silly and asset levitating QE3 program—although he did leave that possibility open: “In addition to refining our forward guidance, the Federal […]

Steve Wynn Leading the Charge

How rare is it for a visible corporate leader to speak publicly on anything but their latest green initiative? ——July 2011 Conference Call————————————————————————- I believe in Las Vegas. I think its best days are ahead of it. But I’m afraid […]

It’s OK for Us to Quote Bond Managers

To the best of my knowledge, Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt have been long 30 year Treasury strips since I started in this business in 1984 and the record has been ridiculously good in a cheerily volatile way. This is […]

The Crowd Around Rising Rates

Bianco Research Comment: “Since December 2002 Bloomberg has conducted 99 monthly surveys. Of these, an incredible 95 surveys (96%) have forecasted higher rates. To repeat, only four times since 2002 (4%) have economists been forecasting lower rates. Those instances are […]

European Spade Work

The Cove Street Team remains confident we will see a European Vacation at an acceptable exchange rate. A nice paid clip from the FT:  ——S&P: Calling a Spade a Spade——————————————————————- Be careful what you wish for. Those European politicians who […]

Thank you Mr. Dimon

At what was surely a suave gathering of banking officials in Atlanta on June 7th, this exchange was noted between Morgan’s Jaime Dimon and Fed Chief Ben Bernanke. The answer should scare you. Mr. Dimon: Y’know, I have this, totally, […]