Bianco Research Comment:

“Since December 2002 Bloomberg has conducted 99 monthly surveys. Of these, an incredible 95 surveys (96%) have forecasted higher rates. To repeat, only four times since 2002 (4%) have economists been forecasting lower rates. Those instances are highlighted in red. Even these bullish forecasts can be explained in a bearish light…

In 36 of the 99 monthly surveys, more than 90% of the respondents were looking for higher interest rates, including the latest survey (May 2011) which shows 99% (69 of 70) respondents see higher rates in the next six months.

Economists are always bearish on interest rates. Expansion, great recession, bubble, surplus, deficit, inflation, deflation, equity bull market, equity bear market, easing, tightening, Republican, Democrat, winter, summer, Yankees, Red Sox—it doesn’t matter. The results are always the same. So, can we have a bond debacle when everyone is forecasting it?”