Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by Mervyn King and John Kay I am fully aware of my ability to convey enthusiasm about seemingly esoteric
While we prefer to spend most of our time on micro analysis, one cannot avoid being dragged into some of the issues of the day.
Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack
This is emblematic of Dumb Money — courtesy of people who are Smart Sellers: Lemonade IPO
It is almost always a contrary indicator when the sell-side is unanimous, but what happens when they can’t agree at all? In reality, when there
“We” applaud the creation of Exchange Traded Funds as a low cost and liquid way for investors to achieve portfolio diversity. We then apply the
The Strategic Game of ? and ? – John Boyd, June 1987
“Value” has a number of different components all tied at the hip. Internally, we simplify by mentally handicapping companies as either “Buffets or Grahams” based
Our favorite new acronym (within an industry that has far too many) is “TINA”. TINA is not the name of a person or object. It
Negative Interest Rates and Assorted Fixed Income Weirdness One Claudio Borio, head of the monetary and economic department at the BIS, recently remarked of $14.8
While I will cop to a mildly obnoxious habit of introducing references that almost always require an internet search, I also will start this year
In a prolonged anti-value momentum-driven rally, it’s easy and natural to forget the long-term value proposition of a rebalancing discipline. The evidence and intuition underlying
Under the heading of things that just can’t last, today’s topic is venture capital firms continuing to invest in technology companies that consistently lose an
It may surprise you to hear that we sincerely believe there are aspects of the investment management industry that are truly unique. Before you start
You Can’t Be a Wimp — Make the Tough Calls — Harvard Business Review
Source: The Wall Street Journal
I certainly have no interest in trying to call the top of any market cycle. No one has the ability to do that consistently. And
“The paper is organized around a number of facts and fictions about the size effect that warrant clarification. The facts we present include: that the
While the S&P 500 reaches new highs, I’ve taken the opportunity to reread Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman. While rereading, I rediscovered the story
Patience is not a virtue that is developed easily, especially if your primary job is to assemble portfolios of publicly traded equities. The amount of
This Time Is Different, But It Will End the Same Way. – Daniel Zwirn, Jim Kyung-Soo Liew and Ajakh Ahmad
One of “our” many behavioral flaws is best described as Recency – as in we either can’t remember a damn thing and thus we extrapolate
This was lifted from a recent column by John Authers, who now writes for Bloomberg after a long career at the Financial Times. In regard
“In the modern corporate sphere the desire to make profits, however, has been replaced with the desire to achieve growth at any cost. Often this
So you might have noticed a few articles around the web in regard to AI/data mining/quantitative finance/etc. While we remain irrevocably wedded to the premise
A long, long, long time ago, I was the first client of the Applied Finance Group, which was founded by a young Rafe Resendes who
Value Investors are Running out of Dumb Humans In a recent Financial Times piece, Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at the NYU Stern School, has
