While we think “client communications” are for clients – this is a clip in the absence of spouting any well-articulated nonsense on the topic of the day.
The first quarter of 2025 was certainly noisy enough, as the world seemed to recall the idea that “stocks fluctuate.” Fluctuate, per some definitions online, can be seen as “move in one direction and then another,” or “to roll hither and thither like a wave,” or “to vary irregularly.”
So yes, stocks and markets can fluctuate, and a functioning investor should be yawning at this point. The functioning investor should also recall the admonition to utterly disregard ANY year-end article that starts with “Our Forecast for the Upcoming Year.”
We will reiterate the following: paying attention to investment fundamentals on a stock specific basis yields more opportunity than worrying about the daily zig and zag. We are not immune to short-term gyrations, but over the long run, it’s about weighing fundamentals properly, not judging investor voting patterns. Pun intended.
We continue to lean “cautious” in general, but more than willing to commit capital to new and existing ideas where we like the business, we like the valuation, and we can at least stand the people. For your purposes, we are here for the money, not the political headline, and once again we see no evidence that “stupid” is confined to any one political party. From an investor standpoint, huge tariffs are a dumb idea and cutting government spending is a good idea. We will leave it you to fill in blanks for a lot of other economic proposals being tossed about, creating a pretty decent argument for “pause” on many levels. And that is what we are seeing in the economy.
So, pick something you know something about and buy something today.