Murray is one of the great thinkers of our generation of investors in this writer’s rarely humble opinion. He also has a set of interesting vehicles that self-servedly benefit from being correct in his inflationary viewpoint. And he does note the “basis risk” in these vehicles betting on higher inflation, as we can often attest. Sometimes the vehicle chosen does not turn out to be the best at capitalizing on the correctly chosen road.

And we compare and contrast that with the Van Hoisington crew, economists and fixed income managers, which in their second quarter piece, made a very strong case for “grow up people we are going to have a recession by any name you can conjure” which would, in theory, support their 40-year trade of “buy long term Treasuries and go away for the rest of the year.” Careful reading might note the specific absence of “and rates go lower from here” which I would suggest they have not been shy about. We will note the obvious – it’s not easy to publicly change your mind when there is a lot of money and reputational change at stake.

Good macro reading so we can go back to thinking about satellites, salt and sulphur regeneration.