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Small Cap Case Study #2: Millicom

As part of our continuing series of “buy the heck out of it and tell everyone else in the world”, with the additional caveat of “hasn’t gone crazy in November,” we offer Millicom.

This was a long road from one of the earliest mobile phone start-ups, mostly funded by the Swedish investment company Kinnevik back in the 1980s. But the present and relevant chapter started in 2015 when CEO Mauricio Ramos joined as CEO.

Ramos spent 9 years building and running Liberty Global’s Latin American division before hearing the siren’s call to lead his own company. Generally, he has executed the “Liberty” playbook and sold off most of the legacy African assets, bulked up and diversified in Latin America at reasonable prices, and spent organically and aggressively in building broadband infrastructure, and to develop and sell the “triple play.” Fiendishly simple.

Small Cap Case Study: Millicom
Click on the image to download a PDF version.

While arguably a bit on the promotional side, the company has generally executed. The next notable concept was Kinnevik – which owned 37 percent of the company until late 2019 when it tried to poorly sell it to Liberty at “north of 70” – deal not consummated, and then dumped it on the open market to existing shareholders across the world. Things settle. Then COVID.

 

Some currency adjustments aside, which has taken some meat off the bone of our price targets, these are highly competitive and attractive assets in growing and developing countries. While they are unlikely to trade at US or European multiples, the current valuation seems absurd to us. There should be a rising tide of valuation accretion as broadband becomes a bigger part of the mix. There is free cash flow and a reasonable balance sheet with debt mostly in local currency. Hurricanes and politics aside, these assets “matter” and will increase in value…and grow.

Tigo does not get a lot of airplay. Take a look.

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