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The Richard Feynman “I too am a dog” Fallacy

So you might have noticed a few articles around the web in regard to AI/data mining/quantitative finance/etc.

While we remain irrevocably wedded to the premise that buying a shiny new dollar for 91 cents or a crumpled dollar for 60 cents is an evergreen concept, we are always seeking process improvement. We have evaluated a LOT of “hip” services pitched to us in this regard, and most seem to be focused on gaming the next quarter’s numbers. No interest.

We did however spend a LOT of time and money on what is and what remains a very interesting “behavioral” service. Our process tries to make new and interesting mistakes as opposed repeating the same dumb thing over and over, and annoyingly we are a little too good at it.

But as noted in this piece in Wired, it is sometimes hard to make sense of the excitedly mined nugget that states “sell every stock after eleven months and your performance will improve.” Which was the result of nearly three years of effort.

We breathe oxygen. Our dog breathes oxygen. Ergo…

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