There is a solid mess out there in the world, and financial markets tend to amplify the severity of non-zero probabilities, and then swing back and forth between severities. In other words, the volatility of stocks tends to greatly exceed changes in underlying fundamentals.

I dig deep into fundamental trenches between the trees in the forest. (Block that metaphor.) And then come up for air and read widely and incessantly, often to the chagrin of those who live with me. And I probably should spend more time making and keeping friends. (And take a joke, Dodger fans—haters are people too.)

I cut and paste a lot and come back to things that help form a North Star: thoroughness, blend qualitative and quantitative judgements, balance “value” with the goodness of a business model, think long term, be willing to change your mind in a hurry when facts present themselves as different than the brilliantly constructed starting narrative.

So this one surfaces from time to time – a classic Bezos.

“I very frequently get the question: ‘What’s going to change in the next 10 years?’ And that is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?’ And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two — because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. … [I]n our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that’s going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It’s impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, ‘Jeff I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,’ [or] ‘I love Amazon; I just wish you’d deliver a little more slowly.’ Impossible. And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.”